Time-series model to predict impact of H1N1 influenza on a children's hospital

Epidemiol Infect. 2012 May;140(5):798-802. doi: 10.1017/S0950268811001749. Epub 2011 Aug 31.

Abstract

The spring of 2009 witnessed the emergence of a novel influenza A(H1N1) virus resulting in the first influenza pandemic since 1968. In autumn of 2010, the 2009 novel H1N1 influenza strain re-emerged. We performed a retrospective time-series analysis of all patients with laboratory-confirmed H1N1 influenza who presented to our institution during 2009. Cases of influenza were assembled into 3-day aggregates and forecasting models of H1N1 influenza incidence were created. Forecasting estimates of H1N1 incidence for the 2010-2011 season were compared to actual values for our institution to assess model performance. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals calculated around our model's forecasts were accurate to ±3·6 cases per 3-day period for our institution. Our results suggest that time-series models may be useful tools in forecasting the incidence of H1N1 influenza, helping institutions to optimize distribution of resources based on the changing burden of illness.

MeSH terms

  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Cohort Studies
  • Hospitalization / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / isolation & purification*
  • Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / pathogenicity*
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
  • Influenza, Human / virology*
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Time Factors